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Crypto Market Predicted to Peak in March Before Correction, US Debt Ceiling to Add Volatility

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Crypto analyst Arthur Hayes predicts the market will peak in mid to late March driven by the Fed's quantitative tightening and US tax season. He warns that the US debt ceiling debate and potential default could further impact market liquidity and increase volatility. Similar concerns were echoed by analysts at QCP Capital. Despite these risks, Bitcoin recently surpassed $100,000, fueled by renewed optimism ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration.

and the overall crypto market could follow the 2024 trend and top out in March before entering an extended correction.

Hayes added that both developments would be a net negative for US liquidity, stalling risk on assets like BTC. In his latest “Once default and shutdown are imminent, a last-minute deal will be reached, and the debt ceiling will be raised. At that point, the Treasury will be free to borrow on a net basis again and must refill the TGA. This will be dollar liquidity negative.”

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