As of writing, there are at least nine running bets on the prediction market platform on the Palisades fire (though only three have significant amounts of money on the line). 'Will the Palisades fire be contained Friday?' reads one outcome prediction, with over $40,000 worth of bets placed. The odds, as it stands, are 'NO,' with a dismal 2 percent chance.There's now a 91% chance the Palisades fire burns >10,000 acres by Friday.
Polymarket has emerged as one of the world's leading prediction markets, a type of platform where users can bet on all sorts of outcomes, including the extremely trivial. Want to make a buck on how many times Elon Musk will tweet in a week, or if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get married? That said, betting on Polymarket is technically illegal in the US — not that it's stopping many would-be bettors, who can easily sidestep the law with VPNs and their blockchain currencies — underscoring the both ethically and legally dubious nature of the operation. All the more striking is the sheer number of outcomes on serious current events, including politics. In fact, Polymarket made a name for itself during the last election cycle, when the site's hivemind predictions were surprisingly accurate. Betting with your crypto wallet on an unfolding catastrophe, however, is a new hi-tech low — though perhaps merely the latest testament to the overwhelming ubiquity of gambling today. On social media, the reaction has been one of shock, outrage, and disbelief. The most damning detail is that it appears that the site's operators don't have any scruples about these kinds of bets — as it's been eagerly highlighting some of them on its social media pages
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