U.S. labor market worse than it appears, Fed paper suggests

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly poses at the bank’s headquarters in San Francisco, California, U.S., July 16, 2019. REUTERS/Ann Saphir

The paper looked at 26 labor market measures that typically move in tandem and found that during the current recovery they are giving wildly divergent signals about the health of the job market. Because the pandemic has forced so many people out of the workforce, "negative signals such as the low labor force participation rate provide a better read than do the positive signals," the researchers argued. "Overall, our findings reveal that the labor market situation is worse than some headline numbers suggest."

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