NEW YORK, June 12 — Investors will be zeroing in on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week as a “Goldilocks” market environment that has helped lift stocks to record highs and tamed a bond selloff is tested by rising inflation.
Investors “are going to be looking for signs that the Fed might believe that inflation is more permanent,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. Strong inflation numbers aside, recent data has offered snapshots of an economy that is strengthening but does not appear to be close to overheating. Employment, for instance, remains about 7.6 million jobs below its February 2020 peak while the latest monthly report fell short of economists estimates.
Analysts at BofA Global Research yesterday outlined a number of reasons that inflation may be more sustained than many expect, including second-tier indicators such as the National Federation of Independent Businesses survey of small businesses showing price pressures are filtering to customers. “At current levels, pessimism remains unusually low,” the AAII said on its website. “Historically, below-average readings for bearish sentiment have been followed by below-average six — and 12-month returns for the S&P 500 index.”
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