Wall Street is wobbling ahead of Tuesday’s open, as big earnings loom and with ample, gloomy distractions out there.
Fighting has ramped up again in Ukraine as the battle begins for the country’s eastern front. Apart from the tragic humanitarian crisis, the conflict is already causing the World Bank and others to cut their global growth forecasts. After lagging dramatically against a strong global economic backdrop for the past two years, their stable stocks basket has outperformed the S&P 500 SPX by 5 percentage points over the past six months, with more “room to run,” they say.
As for the stock names, their stable basket consists of 50 Russell 1000 RUI stocks with the most stable EBITDA growth over the past 10 years. Excluded are those whose biggest year-over-year earning fall in the past five years ranked in the bottom 10% of their sector. Stocks in the bottom 10% of their sector based on consensus 2023 EPS expectations are also excluded.
G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Washington later, with a focus on fallout for the global economy from the Ukraine war. The chart “While the close proximity in the timing between the first [Fed] hike and curve inversion perhaps points to a more truncated late-cycle period this time, the current cross-market setup does not point to a return to the correlation between curve flattening and subsequent bearish equity performance that existed during the late-1960s and through most of the 1970s,” said a JPMorgan team led by Jason Hunter.
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