Five of Canada’s six largest banks posted fiscal third-quarter results last week, with many showing strong loan growth and widening lending margins -- especially at Toronto-Dominion Bank -- as interest rates rise. But those same rate increases have darkened the economic outlook, prompting the banks to stockpile more capital in case borrowers start to default.
“It feels like everyone is waiting for the next shoe to fall because these have all been very good results, but there’s still not enough to bolster the confidence of investors on the outlook again,” Barclays Plc analyst John Aiken said in an interview. “There’s just so much uncertainty.” The bank also will be under pressure to demonstrate a strong performance from its US operations after Toronto-Dominion “set a fairly high bar” with growing loan balances and a widening net interest margin in its American division, Aiken said.
“I don’t necessarily see that abating, particularly because there is still demand out there for goods and services,” Aiken said. “We still have a very good employment rate in Canada, and all this indicates that we’re not going to go into a recession soon.”
higher rates will result in a protracted downturn
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