Retailers, retail landlords cautiously optimistic about holiday shopping season amid inflation, economic worries - Phoenix Business Journal

Covid-19 concerns are diminished, inflation worries are high. But consumers are ready to celebrate what's for many the first so-called normal holiday season in three years, which experts say should keep sales relatively strong and ultimately bolster the retail real estate sector.

Some retailers, though, are bracing for consumers to spend less this holiday season. Big-box retailer Target Corp. out of Minneapolis postedon Wednesday and cut its forecast for the holidays, citing continued weakness in consumer shopping habits. "I don’t think it’s shown up in the data but I think there is nervousness about interest rates and what that means for housing payments," Hottovy said. Other inflation and economic concerns will likely have consumers being judicious about where they shop and spend, including during the holidays.

"... he lower-income consumer is tightening their belt, and we do have a few brands that are affected by that," Simon said."But even with that said, we have an unbelievable return on investment after tax from the earnings that those businesses throw off, and we're also making investments ... in those businesses. So I expect those investments to pay for future earnings growth, but the macro is concerning.", head of retail research at Washington, D.C.

Last year, there were 21 announced bankruptcies in retail, according to Statista. As of June 16, there've only been four in 2022. And there's nothing to suggest retail real estate will be significantly disrupted in 2023 if there's a slowdown or small recession. The retail environment today is"leaner, meaner and stronger," Svec said, in part from the bankruptcies and store closures that were hallmarks of the 2010s and into 2020. Retailers who survived the global financial crisis, the 2010s fallout and the pandemic have finessed their strategies, including omnichannnel, to attract customers.

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