Why this is not the real estate market crash of 2008 - Jacksonville Business Journal

If recessions don’t cause housing crashes, what could cause a crash? Here’s a list of the most critical factors that would lead to significant housing declines.Loose lending practices, adjustable-rate mortgages, and “no money down” loans.High housing supply and low demand leads to high months of inventory.Lack of affordability.

If there were going to be a real estate crash in our immediate future, there would need to be a supply and demand imbalance. This means we would need to have a lot more houses in inventory on the market and way too few buyers providing demand. The great thing about real estate is that there are proven metrics that give a leading indicator of home prices over the next six to 12 months.

Here’s how months of inventory have looked over the past year in Jacksonville. This is the number one reason why we just witnessed a 25% home price appreciation last year in the Jacksonville market.

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