A closely watched U.S. inflation report this week could help settle one of Wall Street’s most pressing questions: whether the market has correctly pegged the near-term trajectory for interest rates.
“If comes in hot, investors will start to price interest rates closer to where the Fed is and likely pressure asset prices,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits.
Pricing in futures markets shows investors betting that central bank easing later this year will drop the fed funds rate from 4.75% to 5% currently to around 4.3% by year-end. Yet projections from Fed policymakers show that most expect no rate cuts until 2024. Economists polled by Reuters expect March data, due April 12, to show the consumer price index climbed by 5.2% on an annual basis, down from 6% the prior month.
“If the Fed was trying to protect investors, one way would be to cut rates,” Hackett said. “They haven’t done so yet, but the market is betting that they will, rightfully or wrongfully.”
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