NEW YORK - A closely watched U.S. inflation report next week could help settle one of Wall Street’s most pressing questions: whether the market has correctly pegged the near-term trajectory for interest rates.
“If comes in hot, investors will start to price interest rates closer to where the Fed is and likely pressure asset prices,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits.
In the bond market, the Fed’s preferred recession indicator plunged to fresh lows in the past week, bolstering the case for those who believe the central bank will soon need to cut rates. The measure compares the current implied forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill.
"Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks," strategists at LPL Research said in a note earlier this week.
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Inflation looks to be going up
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If Core inflation keeps high, Fed has no business easing. We are seeing a great disconnect between market expectations and FED.
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