There are only four affordable cities in the current housing market, and price declines could fade by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note Wednesday.
"While we think modest home price declines are still likely through year-end given the limited scope for improvement in housing affordability, risks to our home price forecast are skewed to the upside in light of the supportive supply picture," the strategists said.The Wall Street giant revised its full-year forecast, and now sees home prices falling 2.2%, up from a prior view for a 6.1% decline. That implies a peak-to-trough decline of 5.7%.
In addition, historical trends from 1995, 2000, and 2018 indicate that home prices tend to climb after the conclusion of a hiking cycle, and Goldman economists expect that the Federal Reserve is done with policy tightening.
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