Luxury stocks aren’t cheap—and that’s the allure

Who wants pricey stocks? Me. You should too – particularly luxury goods companies, especially the priciest. Value vultures may cringe, but let me explain why now is not the time to bargain shop.

May’s dip did little to dent luxury goods’ allure. The industry is still up 16.2 per cent in 2023 – and 43 per cent since the global low, whupping world stocks’ 23 per cent. While Canada lacks them, the U.S. offers some exposure. Europe is the real hotbed, though, with almost three-quarters of the world’s luxury goods market cap. And those stocks have soared this year. France’s are up 25.7 per cent. Italy’s, 36 per cent. Switzerland’s jumped 21 per cent.

P/Es often mislead, particularly early in upturns – like now. Stocks look forward while earnings look backward. Hence the “P” in P/E ratios climbs fast off lows as markets foresee brighter times. But earnings forecasts – let alone actual earnings – lag amid post-bear-market dourness. This inflates luxury goods’ P/Es now.

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