China refiners stoke petchem glut in market share war as demand flags

China is relentlessly adding new petrochemical capacity despite a global glut as the country's refiners diversify from transport fuels, threatening to depress margins worldwide through 2024 as weak economic growth saps demand.

Global demand for ethylene and propylene is forecast to surge 29 per cent from 2023 to 426.8 million metric tons by 2030, while capacity is expected to jump 25 per cent from 2023 to 485.9 million metric tons by 2030, research firm Wood Mackenzie estimates. "The surplus of olefins will be pushed onto the water to clear elsewhere in Asia or further afield in Europe and the U.S. at steep discounts," Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.

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