Stock market outlook
"Inflation has clearly subsided, and yet labor market strength has remained intact," Belski wrote."In other words, we believe the anticipated recipe for disaster is simply not present."Stock market outlook While that may be a surprise given its market outlook, the firm thinks what's truly unexpected is that an economic contraction hasn't happened yet, given that industrial production, business and consumer confidence, new home sales, and retail sales have been in the tank for months.
"Given that multiple expansion is the main driver of performance YTD , we see unattractive risk-reward for equities and increasing investor complacency ahead," Kolanovic wrote in a note about his mid-year outlook. "A strong labor market, high margins, and cash cushions have delayed the bad times we expect," Kolanovic wrote. He added:"Strong Q1 growth and a better-than-expected earnings season make the timing for the next downturn uncertain."
: The risk-reward setup for the S&P 500 is skewed to the downside in the second half of the year, according to Truist. However, the firm upgraded its view on equities to neutral in early June after being defensive since the start of 2022, when market unrest began.
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