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Where’s the recession? These 3 economic indicators can alert investors to a market downturn

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The U.S. economy continues to flash mixed signals, leading some analysts to forecast a recession even as equities continue to rally. noshitcoins shares three indicators investors can watch to better assess the health of the US economy.

Inflation came down a lot faster than most investors and analysts anticipated, reaching 3% in June. The recession that most analysts predicted is nowhere to be seen, according to the 3.6% unemployment rate nearing a 50-year low and the S&P 500 Index showing a 19% gain year-to-date.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has often preceded recessions. This indicator suggests that investors are worried about the near future and expect interest rates to fall due to a potential economic slowdown.The two-year Treasury yield is currently 3.25%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 2.95%, typical of periods ahead of a recession. However, that has been the case since September 2022, and historically there’s a nine- to 24-month lag before the economic contraction takes place.

 

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