Stock market might not bottom until investors capitulate, jump back into bonds

A 7% pullback by the S&P 500 index SPX from its July 31 high has been relatively ordinary, but it’s been accompanied by a rout in the Treasury market that’s sent yields on 10-year notes BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and the 30-year bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y to 16-year highs.

But the outlook is complicated by the Treasury market rout, with investors — unsurprisingly, given the scope of the fall — even more pessimistic toward fixed income, according to NDR’s proprietary indicators. Treasury bond futures TY00, +0.16% dropped around 17.5% from their April 6 high through midweek.

Blame it on inflation. Clissold, in a phone interview, noted that for much of the past quarter-century, stocks and bond prices moved opposite each other. Or, stocks tended to rise as Treasury yields rose. The stock-market selloff so far hasn’t been a “capitulation-type of event where the decline turns into a panic,” Clissold told MarketWatch. The retreat has been fairly “ordinary and broad-based” by historical standards, with the Cboe Volatility Index VIX rising but not hitting extremes and the S&P 500 not suffering a number of outsize down days.

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Stock market might not bottom until investors surrender, jump back into bondsWilliam Watts is MarketWatch markets editor. In addition to managing markets coverage, he writes about stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, including oil. He also writes about global macro issues and trading strategies. During his time at MarketWatch, Watts has served in key roles in the Frankfurt, London, New York and Washington, D.C., newsrooms.
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