Since the beginning of October, 65 per cent of stocks in the S&P/TSX Composite Index have seen their average target prices fall, while 30 per cent of companies in the index have seen their average target prices rise with the balance of companies realizing no changes.
Of note, all 15 securities in the Utilities sector have seen their average target prices contract. And at the other end of the spectrum is the energy sector with 30 out of 40 stocks seeing their average target prices climb higher over the past five weeks. We are still less than halfway through this earnings season and a lot can change over the next few weeks, especially if earnings expectations continue to improve. According to a Nov. 3 report issued by Refinitiv, third-quarter earnings are anticipated to decline 5.4 per cent year-over-year for companies in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which is an improvement from the prior month. On Oct. 5, Refinitiv reported that a 6.1-per-cent year-over-year decline in earnings was expected.
This report includes a link to a list of analysts’ target prices, recommendations, forecast returns, and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns . The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low.
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