Opinion: No, California’s rooftop solar market isn’t dying

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The industry is adapting to the end of the 2021-23 rush that produced growth that wasn’t sustainable.

Corda Solar employee Brendan Baumgartner, left, holds a solar panel as Brad Alvey installs the panel at a home in Danville on Dec. 21, 2023.2019 was a good year for residential solar in California. Households served by the three large investor-owned utilities — Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric —14% more electricity generation capacity than the prior year.

Households that signed up for solar prior to April 15, 2023, are still under NEM 2.0. However, systems permitted since then are covered under the new policy, “NEM 3.0.” They receive a much lower rate for their exports, but these households still save the full retail rate when they use their solar power onsite.

First, anticipation of the CPUC policy change drove a gold rush during the first 3½ months of 2023. Many of those early 2023 buyers would have been later-2023 buyers were it not for the push to install before April 15. In fact, total 2023 residential sales were 12% higher than 2022.

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