The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index edged higher for a third straight month in April. Today’s revised estimate indicates a 7.0% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which holds all the, according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s projection marks a slight increase from the
GMI represents a theoretical benchmark of the optimal portfolio for the average investor with an infinite time horizon. On that basis, GMI is useful as a starting point for customizing asset allocation and portfolio design to match an investor’s expectations, objectives, risk tolerance, etc. GMI’s history suggests that this passive benchmark’s performance is competitive with most active asset-allocation strategies, especially after adjusting for risk, trading costs and taxes.
For context on how GMI’s realized total return has evolved through time, consider the benchmark’s track record on a rolling 10-year annualized basis. The chart below compares GMI’s performance vs. the equivalent for US stocks and US bonds through last month. GMI’s current return for the past ten years is 6.4%, which is moderately above the recent low for this time window.
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