- Investors are eyeing portfolio protection from a potentially rough stretch in U.S. stocks as they face political uncertainty, big tech earnings and seasonal weakness.
Meanwhile, VIX futures show investors are guarding against elevated volatility around the U.S. presidential vote in what has already been one of the most dramatic election years in history. President Joe Biden abandoned his failing reelection bid on Sunday under growing pressure from his fellow Democrats and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's candidate to face Republican Donald Trump in November.
The small-company focused Russell 2000 is up 9% over the last 10 sessions, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down 3% during that period, a trade spurred by rising expectations the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates and the improving political fortunes of GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump after he survived an assassination attempt.
A combination of seasonality and election year jitters could be another catalyst for market gyrations, with September and October typically the most volatile months for U.S. stocks. The VIX averages 21.8 in October, compared to its closing level of 14.9 on Monday. That rises to 24.8 in election years, according to LSEG data going back to 1992.
Online betting site PredictIt on Monday showed pricing for a Donald Trump victory at 60 cents, compared to 39 cents for a win by Harris. Trump followers were in a tizzy after the former vice president thanked Biden for "putting the interests of our Nation ahead of his own" by ending his campaign.Jäykät nivelet? Kokeile Arthorol Prota ilmaiseksi*While other candidates trail Donald Trump in polls, the former first lady leads by double digits.
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