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NOK Update: Market pessimism overdone for Norway

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EURNOK Nouvelles

Norway,Banks

Right now, the market is pricing in around 5 rate cuts from Norges Bank over the next year.

We think this is vastly overdone and see a clear upside to forward interest rates but as a consequence, also a clear downside to EUR/NOK, Nordea FX analysts note. A clear upside to the current market pricing of rates “While the drop in rates expectations abroad surely pulls the rate path from Norges Bank down in isolation, the deprecation of NOK more than compensate for this.

” “With growth picking up and inflation, while somewhat lower than expected still much higher than comfortable for Norges Bank, we just don’t see the need for Norges Bank to stimulate the economy much. At least not with NOK at this weak levels. The weakening of NOK we have witnessed lately will mean higher inflation 6-9 months out.” “We therefore see a clear upside to the current market pricing of rates in Norway. This should in consequence also support the NOK going forward.

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