Market gyrations reflect fears about the unwinding of QE

Last week, before the global market meltdown, three dozen luminaries of American finance gathered for a summer lunch, where they conducted informal polls about the outlook. The results were pretty dull. The majority at the table voted for a so-called “soft landing” for the US economy, with rates of 3-3.5 per cent in a year’s time, and a swing of 10 per cent, or less, for stock prices .

The Bank for International Settlements reports that cross-border yen borrowing rose $742bn since late 2021 and banks such as UBS estimate there was around $500bn in outstanding cumulative carry trades earlier this year. UBS and JPMorgan also think that about half of these have been unwound. But analysts disagree on how far these trades pumped up US tech stocks, and thus account for recent declines.

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