“We expect 4Q24 results to offer few surprises with banks likely to report incremental worsening in credit costs , net interest margin stability in the face of BoC rate-cuts and tempered loan growth. EPS growth momentum improving heading into 2025 with our revised 4Q24 EPS estimates implying +7% YoY growth vs +6% reported for 3Q24; PCLs +3bp QoQ; NIM +1bp; loan growth +1.0% … Potential for a cyclical rebound on the back of BoC rate cuts, US soft-landing remains a bit of an unknown.
“Headline CPI in October that was slightly stronger than consensus expectations and back at 2%YoY should not be a concerning pick-up for BoC officials, but stronger core measures could give officials more pause when considering a larger rate cut. Part of the strength in inflation in October was a onetime larger increase in property taxes.
“Hedge fund long positions have boosted US equity long/short hedge fund returns to +14% YTD. Our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions has returned +30% YTD, almost twice the return of the equal-weight S&P 500 … Hedge funds rotated within stocks exposed to this year’s dominant themes of mega-cap exceptionalism and AI exuberance.