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CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey Reveals Surge in Optimism Among Republicans

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BUSINESS OPTIMISM REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INFLATION

The Q4 2024 CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey reveals a significant increase in optimism among Republican business owners, while Democratic business owners' outlook has declined. The survey also shows a growing belief among business owners that inflation has peaked, though this view is not yet widespread.

The Q4 2024 CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey reveals a surge in optimism covering issues from taxes to regulation, immigration and even trade policy.

On inflation, there is less of a partisan divide and more business owners believe a peak has been reached, though notably, this view remains short of a majority on Main Street.Scholars and political strategists have long observed a tendency among voters to seek change in leadership during periods of economic hardship, a phenomenon rooted in the belief that new leadership may offer solutions to pressing economic challenges.

Republican business owners' optimism is driving the surge in positive sentiment. Notably, small business owners who identify as Democrats report a decline in business sentiment, from 62 in the previous quarter to 50 in Q4. However, this decline is not enough to offset the massive jump in sentiment among Republican business owners — 28 points quarter over quarter. Independents recorded a small bump, from 51 points in Q3 to 57 points in Q4.

Tariff troubles are further split along party lines. Four in ten small business owners expect President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs to impact their business, compared with 33% who anticipate no impact. Republican business owners are more likely than Democrats to think that tariffs will not impact them . Two in three Democrats think tariffs will affect their business, compared to just 31% of Republicans.

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