There has been much debate about who will be crowned the ultimate global store of value, gold or bitcoin. Based on the most recent technical development of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart, the market is voting on bitcoin.
We are currently hold long positions in bitcoin and short positions in gold based on this analysis that I'll attempt to explain as clearly and quickly as possible: Looking at the weekly ratio chart of bitcoin-to-gold you'll notice that the highlighted triple-top resistance (ceiling) level from 2021 has been penetrated. This indicates that bitcoin is outperforming gold and is doing so at a significant technical resistance level formed by a three year old triple top. We first highlighted this macro ratio chart here in this column on July 9. In this same article we called for bitcoin to hold support between $59,000 to $49,000 before moving to our target of $105,000 to $109,000. That target is not met and we need to update our target resistance zone to higher levels Bitcoin is continuing to push higher and based on the price behavior and price structure of the advance I think it's prudent to adjust our target higher to a range of $129,000 to $153,000. We currently hold a 3% allocation of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the growth portfolio of our investors at Inside Edge Capital and intend to hold the position to see if that target zone can be tested. To further this analysis of our long bitcoin/short gold thesis, I would like to show that gold is technically in a weak position from several macro forces and longs should heed caution. As I said I'm in fact currently short gold. The chart below is a fairly complex 20-year look at the real 10-year bond yield (calculated by subtracting expected 10-year inflation from the nominal yield of the 10 year treasury note) overlaid on the price of gold. The two markets have an inverse relationship going back to 2024. If real yields are moving higher then gold moves lower, and vice vers