Since the forecasts were so inaccurate in 2022, through 2023, you rarely hear any kind of recession talk these days, and for good reason, with the US job market being frighteningly consistent the last 36 months., one of this blog’s favorite economic indicators given its frequency, have consistently hovered between 210k – 230k with the exception of October and the hurricanes in North Carolina, when the data briefly jumped up to 250k.
A 537 basis point rise in the fed funds rate beginning March ’22, and then the latest 100 bp reduction in the fed funds rate back to 4.375% has seemingly had little if any effect on the so-called “real” economy.The earnings data this weekend looks very healthy, but 2025 guidance will matter much.
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