Long-term bonds have been on a tear in recent weeks with yields tumbling more rapidly than almost any other time in the past decade. But the recession signals flashed by these moves may have been exaggerated because of “forced buying” among some investors.
The strong rally in long bonds has made them among the best performing assets of any market in the world this year. They have also caused dreaded inversions of the U.S. yield curve in August: That is where 10-year yields fall below two-year yields, a reliable signal that...
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