REUTERS: What started as a bear market bounce in U.S. equities has transformed into one of the most dramatic rallies in memory, leaving investors looking to past rebounds, options markets and technical analysis for clues on how far it could run.
U.S. stocks rose Monday after days of widespread protests and civil unrest over racial inequities and excessive police force.“We’re in a different game and trying to establish what is fair value is difficult,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank. The bank’s research also shows that longer recessions tend to produce longer bear markets - another worrying sign for a rally that has taken the S&P within 10per cent of its all-time high with little evidence of a recovery in sight.
A Société Générale study examining bear markets over the last 150 years shows gains in past bounces off a bottom have been slower, with the S&P notching an average of 11per cent in the first three months after drops of 30per cent or more. After two years, the average gain from the bottom stood around 40per cent - roughly what the index has gained since late March.
A Reuters poll of nearly 50 market strategists and fund managers in late May showed the S&P ending the year at 2,950, just below current levels.
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