The payrolls report released Friday came in far below estimates, and now shows total employment 5.3 million positions short of where it stood before the pandemic hit the U.S. economy. More on that in a second.
“Anyone trying to fill open positions recently has figured out in their gut that part of the ‘labor shortage’ they were facing, while millions of people were unemployed, was due to potential workers being incentivized not to work, with the extra $300 a week in benefits, on top of the state benefits, on top of not having to pay rent due to the eviction moratoriums, or not having to make mortgage payments due to the forbearance programs,” says Richter.
“Many intangibles feed into whether markets are willing to buy new debt, especially when a bad shock is likely to sharply increase supply. We point to Japan, where debt-to-GDP has risen from 2012 to 2021, with continued very low interest cost on that debt. This contrasts with many countries that have far lower debt levels, but face high interest rates and difficult access to markets,” they said.
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