The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction. But inflation, which has hovered near a four-decade high, has been a drag on Democrats’ prospects in an election where polls indicate the economy is voters’ top issue.
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Won't bother zelensky..
It's the WAR U.S. must STOP fueling RUSSIA ukraine
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