Market-implied expectations of ECB’s next few rate hikes shifted marginally lower – Rabobank

Assessing the latest inflation figures from Germany, Rabobank analsysts noted that German HICP inflation slowed from 11.3% y/y to 9.6%; the lowest reading since August."That’s a softer than expected headline number, with markets anticipating a drop to 10.2%. Yet, as welcome as this stronger retreat to single-digit headline numbers is, the reading is affected by some unusual factors. Most importantly, the German government provided one-off compensation for energy bills last month.

"That said, adding to the ECB’s concerns that it could take significant time before inflation returns to the central banks’ target, labour markets remain tight in various countries. Specifically, German unemployment unexpectedly fell in December. According to the Federal Labour Agency, there were 13,000 fewer unemployed after adjusting for seasonal factors and the inflow of Ukrainian refugees.

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