Wall Street and industry analysts remain on high alert for signs of a "demand destruction" scenario for the U.S. automotive industry this year.They range from electric vehicle sales outpacing the overall industry to concerns about consumer demand amid economic pressures.David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Imagesa "demand destruction"
Those factors created a supply problem for the auto industry, which Cox Automotive and others believe may switch to a"We're swapping a supply problem for a demand problem," Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said Thursday.this year that point to such an outcome. Here they are along with reasons why investors should be mindful of them.
"We see this as one of the silver linings for dealers," Smoke said. "The service department usually does well [and] is somewhat counter-cyclical during economic downturns."High interest rates are making vehicle purchasingfor mainstream buyers and less economical for more wealthy consumers. Such conditions are expected to push those who have the cash to purchase a vehicle to buy it without financing it.
"The longer-term concern is that this causes what is produced to skew even more towards luxury and away from affordable price points, which means even the U.S. vehicle market has a long-term affordability issue," Smoke said.Used vehicle prices skyrocketed during the first two years of the coronavirus pandemic due to the low availability of new cars and trucks. The wholesale pricing peaked in January 2022.
Automakers are expected to rely more heavily on sales to commercial and fleet customers such as rental car and government agencies than they have in recent years to increase total sales.
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