What a lousy close to the month. The S & P 500 ended right at the closing low for February, down 2.6%. Like the end of December, traders ended the month in a bearish mood. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6-months So what's likely to happen in March? With so much negative sentiment, the "pain trade" is for the markets to rise. What's wrong with stocks? The problems are both fundamental and technical.
The decline in earnings estimates, of course, only makes the stock market pricier. Even with the decline in February, the S & P 500 is currently trading for nearly 18 times 2023 earnings. Seventeen is the historic norm, and the S & P rarely trades above 18 times forward earnings for any length of time, and certainly not with a recession.
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