have warned the chaos that rocked the banking sector last quarter could spark a credit crunch and fuel an economic slump in the US.
They believe that regional lenders will tighten their credit standards to bolster their balance sheets in the aftermath of the fiasco. That could lead to a decline in overall spending levels, with American consumers and companies finding it more difficult to take out loans.provided last week's best example of a potential credit crunch weighing on a company's first-quarter results. The S&P 500-listed supplier beat analysts' earnings forecast but warned of weaker sales last month.
"A massive, systemic financial confidence shock appears to have been averted, but tighter credit is manifesting in the real economy," Subramanian's team wrote in their Monday note. "Fastenal, an industrial bellwether, cited softer March sales especially in manufacturing, and consumption slowed in March across income cohorts," they added.
The bank stuck with its view that the S&P 500 as a whole will average a below-consensus EPS of $200 this earnings season – but noted that outlook"could be too low if March's events prove to be idiosyncratic and temporary."
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