Fed decision trade: What JPMorgan traders see the market doing, based on these scenarios

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 99% probability of rates going up by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. That said, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could sway the market one way or another, depending on whether he signals more rate hikes are ahead — or if the central bank is close to ending its tightening campaign.

Right now, the market sees only about a 30% chance of one more rate hike this year, JPMorgan traders said. "What kind of data would induce more hikes? Core CPI MoM printed 0.4% and 0.2% in June and May; if we see core inflation revert higher from prior levels, we may see Fed continue to tighten," they said. The S & P 500 would fall 0.5%-1% under this scenario. 1%-2% chance — hawkish skip: The S & P 500 would rally under this outcome, JPMorgan said.

Indonesia Berita Terbaru, Indonesia Berita utama

Similar News:Anda juga dapat membaca berita serupa dengan ini yang kami kumpulkan dari sumber berita lain.

JPMorgan’s top strategist stays bearish stocks, but thinks this asset class may catch upJPMorgan chief global equity strategist Marko Kolanovic says commodities stand out as 'under-valued [and] under-owned.'
Sumber: CNBC - 🏆 12. / 72 Baca lebih lajut »

Overconcentration in U.S. stock market sees fastest rise in 60 years, JPMorgan warnsThe stock market's dependence on a handful of megacap names increases at the fastest pace in 60 years, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.
Sumber: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 Baca lebih lajut »