Labor market tightness is underpinning the economy, with data this week showing a solid increase in retail sales in July and, which prompted economists to raise their growth estimates for the third quarter. But that resilience raises the risk that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again.
The labor market is only slowing at the margin, with job gains in July being the second-smallest since December 2020. The unemployment rate is hovering around levels last seen more than 50 years ago. There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June. Economists have dialed back their forecasts for a recession this year, and are increasingly warming up to the idea that the Fed could guide the economy to a "soft landing."
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