It could take six more years for the Federal Reserve to shrink its mortgage bondholdings to less than $1 trillion, according to a new Goldman Sachs estimate.
The Fed last week suggested its policy rate could stay above 5% for longer than an earlier forecast, darkening the housing-market outlook and fueling worries that mortgage rates could reach 8%, instead of providing the relief many on Wall Street had been anticipating. The Goldman chart also shows the Fed’s slow progress on unwinding its holdings. Mortgage-bond runoff this year has been far below the Fed’s $35 billion monthly caps, recently clocking in at about $19 billion. The Fed isn’t selling bonds to cut the size of its balance sheet, but letting its holdings mature.
“MBS” is shorthand for mortgage-backed securities or mortgage bonds. The Goldman team thinks rate cuts in 2025 could boost the monthly MBS runoff to around $25 billion a month, but expect it to take until mid-2029 for the Fed’s mortgage-bond holdings to fall below $1 trillion.
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