The rising yields on U.S. government debt, which sent the 10-year Treasury rate near 5%, a level not seen in 16 years, has posed a challenging environment for stock market investors.
“I think we’re in a new era where having bonds is not safe. Bonds are not risk free — the 30 year Treasury lost more than the Nasdaq in 2022,” said Nancy Davis, portfolio manager for the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF IVOL. Equities are essentially very long-duration securities, making them sensitive to interest rates, Hatfield said. As interest rates go up, stocks’ future earnings are discounted at a higher rate.
For the past three months, the 10-year Treasury yield went up 108 basis points, which implies the S&P 500 multiple should drop almost three points, Hatfield noted. The S&P 500’s price per earnings ratio stood at 19.34 on Thursday, according to Dow Jones market data. Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -1.40%, Google’s parent company Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, -1.56% and Visa Inc. V, -0.18% will report their earnings results for the third quarter on the coming Tuesday. Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. META, -1.33% and Amazon AMZN, -2.52% are due to report on the coming Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
All that said, Hatfield said his biggest advice for investors is to stay cautious. “This is adult Swim. This is a market where you want the best traders in the world dealing with it.”
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