-- When oil jumped above $90 a barrel just days ago, military tensions between Israel and Iran were the immediate trigger. But the rally’s foundations went deeper — to global supply shocks that are intensifying fears of a commodity-driven inflation resurgence.
Mexico, the US, Qatar and Iraq cut their combined oil flows by more than 1 million barrels a day in March, tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Baghdad has pledged to limit output to make up for non-compliance with prior pledges to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+.
The market for heavier, dirtier oil “has been rangebound to bearish for some time now, but this tightness in sour markets and the outlook for the summer driving season in the US suggest the market is turning a corner,” said Samantha Hartke, an analyst with analytics firm Sparta Commodities. Oil prices are now boosting US inflation after subtracting from it at the end of last year. That may be evident again in the March consumer price index due Wednesday, as the overall CPI is seen accelerating on an annual basis, while the core measure that excludes food and energy is expected to tick down. A Bloomberg index of key commodities has reached the highest level since November.
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