While debate rages on about when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates, biotech industry analysts are making the case that the argument for stocks in the sector is growing. The central bank has held rates steady since last July as it patiently waits for more signs that inflation is cooling. But a reading on consumer prices in March released Wednesday dampened hopes that policy is about to ease.
The market's expectations are now pinned on September rather than June or July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool , a gauge of 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing. Last week, Morgan Stanley analysts noted that it is the months leading up to an initial rate cut when biotech stocks outperform. By contrast, the group actually tends to underperform in the initial period after rates are lowered, the Wall Street bank said. Indeed, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index has risen about 14% since its October low. Morgan Stanley also believes the case for biotech stocks is further reinforced by the financing environment and the outlook for mergers and acquisitions as well as upcoming innovation. .NBI 6M mountain Nasdaq Biotechnology Index over the past six months "Assuming rates trend on a downward trajectory, new innovation delivers, and M & A continues, we see the potential for another cycle of sustained outperformance for the industry," the analysts wrote. The case for M & A The brisk pace of M & A at the end of 2023 has continued in the first quarte
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