Netflix Earnings Preview: Free-Cash-Flow Improvement Has Been Impressive

), reports their financial results for their first calendar quarter of 2024 after the market closes on Thursday, April 18th, 2024.

Looking further back, the stock bottomed in mid-2022, near $160 – $170 per share, while the fundamentals bottomed in Q4 ’22, which will be discussed in a minute. Since that time, the stock has rallied back from those levels to over $600 on better subscriber growth, ad tiering, the pressure on password sharing and the newest positive, Netflix’s deal with WWE’s RAW and their first foray into live sports.

Looking at NFLX from a cash-flow valuation perspective, when the stock was bottoming in mid-2022 near $150 – $160, the stock was trading at 100x – 125x cash-flow at $150 – $160 per share, but with the stock back at $620, NFLX is now trading – as of Dec ’31 metrics – at 34x – 35X cash-flow and free-cash-flow. Still lofty but dramatically improved.

Netflix convinced me to join in 2005 at $10.59 per month, and today I’m paying $25.09 per month, so readers can thank me for my steady contribution to cash-flow. The big technical level for NFLX is now the all-time-high in November ’21, at $700 per share. The interesting part of NFLX’s business is live sports and the entry with WWE’s RAW. While talking to a few analysts with JPMorgan’s growth team, they thought that RAW would give Netflix a way to cut their teeth on the live sports segment and then gradually expand into other areas. Plus there is NFLX’s emerging advertising business, which is still very small, but looking at other tech giant entrants into advertising, it tends to ramp quickly.

Having never been a big fan of buying a higher PE growth stock in front of an earnings report, readers should be cautious. Stocks like this trade like futures.

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