We had a roller-coaster month of May in terms of central bank expectations. The month began with the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the interest rates steady, and Jerome Powell saying that the Fed’s next move will probably NOT be a rate cut. The latter had sent the markets rallying with enthusiasm.
Markets’ bull had an ear on the avalanche of Fed comments without necessarily putting too much focus on them, until last week’s Fed minutes revealed an inconvenient truth: that ‘many’ Fed members questioned whether keeping the rates high for longer is enough restrictive to continue the inflation battle, and if hiking rates wouldn’t be more effective. And the mood finally darkened. This is where we are right now.
In China and nearby, the CSI 300 and HSI index are better bid this Monday morning following a correction last week – which brought sellers back to the market before the HSI index got the opportunity to test the 20K psychological resistance. The Chinese stimulus measures are supportive of gains, but the rising tensions with the West are threatening the Chinese companies’ revenue expectations.
Against sterling, the euro is sitting on a critical support, the 0.85 level. A hotter-than-expected inflation report from the UK brought the Bank of England hawks to the battle field last week, but uncertainties surrounding an upcoming and a too-early general election in the UK will hardly let the pair gain momentum below this level.
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