A recovery in global growth, as well as another record year for corporate buybacks should boost earnings and stock prices, driving the the S&P 500 to 3,000 this year, according to J.P. Morgan equity strategists.
The strategists also believe the outlook for earnings was too pessimistic and they expect the anticipated decline in first quarter profits to turn around by the end of the reporting period, with S&P 500 companies delivering a 4% to 5% earnings surprise and profit growth of 2-3%. "As for performance, we expect equities to remain resilient during the reporting season as results should hint at a global growth recovery at a time when investor positioning and sentiment remains relatively low," the strategists wrote.
There are also existing buyback authorizations that have not been realized yet of about $700 billion, as of the fourth quarter. Companies also still have excess cash of about $1.5 trillion, excluding financial companies they added. They also expect operating cash flow to be the predominant source for capital return, with debt funded buybacks now at just 14% after having peaked in 2017 at 34%.
'we will take our clients' money, and buy some more '
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