data are also due this week, with CPI Thursday, July 11th, and PPI scheduled for release Friday, July 12th, 2024.
Consumer credit will be released Monday afternoon. It doesn’t typically get a lot of press, but it’s been somewhat weak the last few months.The forward 4-quarter estimate jumped $9 this week as the old quarter fell off and new quarter was added , with the new forward 4-quarter estimate now $261.39. The forward 4-quarter estimate the first week of January ’24 was $243.98.The S&P 500 earnings yield jumped to 4.69% from last week’s 4.63% despite the 1.
The unusual strength in May and June ’24 is starting to weaken, but that’s what happens in the last two weeks of each quarter and then the first two weeks of the following quarter, until the earnings release docket starts to ramp.Remember though, the S&P 500 will peak before the S&P 500 EPS estimates start to roll over. While the S&P 500 itself is a leading indicator, I’d say – after doing this weekly post for 20 years – that S&P 500 earnings are more a coincident indicator.
One aspect that is rarely talked about today, is that in terms of earnings quality, the S&P 500 today is light years ahead of the late 1990’s, and where that is apparent is the cash-flow statement.Q2 ’24 : tech sector EPS expected to grow +16.9% while tech sector revenue is expected at +9.5% yoy;Q4 ’23 actual: tech sector EPS grew +24.2% yoy, while revenue grew +7.8% yoy;Q2 ’23 actual: tech sector EPS grew +5% yoy, while revenue was flat yoy;The trend is your friend.
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