The stock market appears to be in a mania phase, with what seems to be a near-vertical climb in the last couple of days. There has been a rate of change that shows some acceleration in the trend. What is also noticeable in theETF is that there has been a deceleration in the volume. This could be due to the higher price, but I think it is likely due to a lack of sellers. If there were no buyers, the price wouldn’t rise.saw its RSI climb to 81.7 and its %B climb to 1.1.
The 1-month implied correlation index was higher yesterday, too, because when the implied volatility of the index and its components rise, correlations go higher, which is what happened yesterday. Earnings estimates for this year have not improved at all, and 2025 estimates have improved by about $3 per share on estimates of $275 per share.
In fact, this whole thing feels very 1998 to 2000ish to me, even looking at the chart on a normalized basis. yesterday, the S&P 500, starting at the October 2022 lows, has exceeded the gains seen in the S&P 500, beginning in October 1998, over a similar period. Remember the period in the summer and fall of 1998 low was the Long-Term Capital Management and Asian Currency crisis.
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