Navigating sell-offs and a volatile market: Catalysts

Market Volatility Berita

Navigating sell-offs and a volatile market: Catalysts
Jobless Claims,Madison Mills,Jason Pride

On today's episode of Catalysts, Co-hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills provide key insight into the market volatility and how investors can best navigate it...

,"We had a little bit of an economic surprise that people are still, I think, deciphering that employment report. I mean, even today with the jobless claims numbers, people are kind of looking back and questioning, well, how do you reconcile these two?" Pride explains.Nvidia to"remain dominate in a market that is growing very, very fast."

And as earning season continues, barclays changing its rating on the retail sector will tell you which stocks, one analyst sees as buying opportunities within the space. And you can see that yellow bar screen here is right where we've been the past couple of days and I was a little bit surprised frankly that our, our sell off that we've seen over the past five days here was not less of a big deal in comparison with history.

Uh and those things together kind of like other previous big really rapid declines, just kind of happened at the same time and kicked off a series of dislocations in the market that probably will eventually turn out to be when we look back is temporary in nature. Now, get to your question of, of what does that mean on a go forward basis, we're probably still going to be picking through this economic information.

I think it just, it takes some time for us to see enough economic data, for people to get comfortable with the fact that OK, this isn't a recessionary environment yet. Uh Every client or every investor should have an idea of like, what's my normal, what is my kind of neutral allocation on equities and bonds on different portions of the market?Don't chase, meaning when the market's up a lot, don't chase the market up a lot.Use the volatility to rebalance your portfolio.It doesn't have to be like every single day that the market's down but uses as opportunities to rebound, get yourself on target with your investment approaches.

And this comes at a time when it seems like many investors are still waiting on the sidelines when it comes to a video.So yes, I would say that first of all, since the peak of June, Nvidia's stock has pulled back by nearly 30%.And the reality is that, you know, even despite the concerns uh the recent concerns on on the company, you know, the Blackwell uh delay concerns around macro, we still expect NVIDIA to dominate the data center XPU market.

We see little downside to valuation, even the stock is now trading below the, the 12 multiple of the 2018, 2019 down cycle.I want to talk about what we've heard from some of the videos biggest customers, Shana was mentioning, you've got Microsoft meta alphabet and Amazon contributing about 40% of the videos overall revenue.

But the reality is that even if we conserve model a significant slowdown in investments in 2026 2027 by these giants that still makes room for a good upside for all the names we cover exposed to data center A I spending. Um And so the the integration of these components into the substrate has resulted in issues like thermal mismatch and warpage.Um and it was market very, very rapidly by NVIDIA, you know, NVIDIA is accelerating its product cadence.But that being said, we still expect NVIDIA and to bring Blackwell to market with acceptable yield and volume in 2025.They can extend the life of hoer, they can release a single die black whale chip.

The, the first is that there's not a lot of transparency when it comes to the software companies and how much revenue they're seeing from A I if any yet. And as new models come out and new features come out, they have to figure out how those fit into their own businesses.And I think honestly that the final issue is that when it comes to hardware versus software, there's a fundamental difference, the software needs the hardware to work.So you're going to see a lot of the hardware money come in first.

Um It's kind of amazing when you kind of when you look at the numbers that Eli Lilly is already generating in just the second full quarter of Z bound being on the market, it's already annually, basically $5 billion. Um We've seen so many clinical studies not only showing how profound the weight loss is for these drugs, but that they are kind of preventative medicines in some respect with cardiovascular benefits, with stroke benefit heart failure, um kidney failure, all these other medical conditions that the drug is um very active in reducing.Once patients have already been diagnosed with something in this case, they're, they're preventative in many ways.

Um, they take a couple seconds, you know, when you, when you use them as injections, that's versus the compounded product.So I think for most patients they want the branded product, the inability to get it has been the gating factor. But I'm curious, uh there's a lot riding obviously just in terms of what demand is going to look like for the vaccine, whether or not they're gonna see the updated shot here for the fall season and and what that is ultimately going to look like on a global scale as well.Um Not that surprised that it's up today when you just look at the valuation of a company that's worth a little bit more than a billion and is still going to do roughly 400 to 500 million in sales next year.

And there's three factors that really drove Dutch Ros decision to reiterate that same source of sales guidance that includes the roll off of price increases in Q three. Now, the Cyber security firm also raised its full year forecast and just to run through a couple of the headline numbers here and just the degree to which we are seeing beats revenue coming in at 645 million.

And I think that also speaks maybe more broadly to some of the trends that we've seen play out here in the markets.The fact that we did see a bit of a moderation in customer additions that may be obviously something that the street could take issue with down the line if it becomes more of a trend that we're starting to see.

Next Barclay is coming in with a downgrade to the retail sector to neutral from positive the firm citing intensifying promotional activity as one of the reasons behind the call saying it could be pointing to a weakening demand backdrop. They live in that kind of sphere of what is actually going on, kind of in the broader economy, there will always be 20% of companies who it's their brand moment.

It is really, really hard to kind of pick that bottom when the overarching kind of, you know, demand environment is, is uh you know, getting weaker, Adrian, I wanna bring up Nike because it's one of the names that you've recently, downgraded, downgraded to equal way back at the end of June. And, and so I do think they can make the next couple of quarters they gave, you know, 10% off operating margin guidance was down 10% sales.But at the end of the day, it's a growth company, it is valued like a growth company, they have to grow the top line.

It's such a great point, Shana, but also I'm fascinated in Costco as the latest company to come out against freeloaders. Uh Netflix came to mind for me, for example, when this story came up, it seems like as we continue to see companies having to find uh kind of creative ways to increase their pricing power to up their margins every quarter after quarter.

The volatility index known as the Fear Gauge recorded its biggest one day jump on record closing at the highest level that we've seen since October 2020.More than $4 billion was aas from 10 of the largest short volatility ETS from their highs. Um, but, you know, investors, uh, were shocked by this and I think many of them are gonna be tentative getting back in.

Um But I certainly think we're going to get some clear indications even sooner, even in the next several weeks or, or a month. So that is interesting and indicative of uh woods firm kind of buying the dip when it was at its strongest earlier in the week on Monday here. You know, she's getting criticism for not doing any press conferences or any media interviews, but look what's happening in the polls.I mean, that is a gigantic flip in what's been happening.

I mean, she might emphasize these things more and Rick while we have, you you also have a recent column out on what exactly uh Harris President, he a Trump presidency would, would mean for the national debt.I heard you had a heck of a lot of comments in your article that just do you care about it as an issue because yeah, people definitely read these stories.

CORRECTING and REPLACING Snorkel AI Signs Agreement with BNY to Accelerate the Development of AI Models PALM BEACH, Fla. — Donald Trump said Thursday he is proposing three presidential debates with three television networks, saying he agreed on certain dates in September while acknowledging that Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign had not yet accepted those terms.ADDING MULTIMEDIA Avangrid Appoints New Chief Information Officer

 

Indonesia Berita Terbaru, Indonesia Berita utama

Similar News:Anda juga dapat membaca berita serupa dengan ini yang kami kumpulkan dari sumber berita lain.

Equities seek to recover losses, Disney falls on earnings: CatalystsEquities seek to recover losses, Disney falls on earnings: CatalystsOn today's episode of Catalysts, co-hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills explore current market dynamics and notable corporate earnings reports. Markets take ...
Baca lebih lajut »

Big Tech's AI investments, Anheuser-Busch earnings: CatalystsBig Tech's AI investments, Anheuser-Busch earnings: CatalystsToday on Catalysts, hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills explore leading themes in the AI trade, the morning's top trending stocks, and the latest economic...
Baca lebih lajut »

September rate cut odds, latest bank earnings: CatalystsSeptember rate cut odds, latest bank earnings: CatalystsOn today's episode of Catalysts, Hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills break down some of the biggest stories driving market action, from the possibility of a ...
Baca lebih lajut »



Render Time: 2025-01-09 14:44:10