US oil executives are eagerly awaiting Donald Trump’s expected rollback of environmental regulations, but despite the president’s pledge to “drill, baby, drill”, production is unlikely to increase significantly during his second term in office. Trump made energy policy a pillar of his campaign, vowing to slash red tape and unshackle US oil producers to drive up production and bring down prices for consumers.
The model of capital discipline they have imposed on the sector is unlikely to change. “Price and Wall Street are the regulators of US production, not the president,” said Jim Burkhard, head of research for oil markets at consultancy S&P Global. Production is set to average about 13.2mn barrels a day this year, according to S&P, rising to 13.6mn b/d in 2025 before probably slipping the following year, driven by lower prices. Trump’s re-election does not change its near term outlook.