Stock Market Outlook for 2025: Uncertainty and Continued Growth

The S&P 500, which many people's 401(k)s track, rose almost 28% this year as of Monday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged a remarkable 34% over that period, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 16%.

Years of strong stock market performance have puzzled forecasters: Will high stock prices deter potential investors in 2025, or will momentum propel shares even higher? Experts anticipate tailwinds will continue to drive stocks upward in 2025, but they warn of more than usual uncertainty that could prevent further gains or even exacerbate them. The biggest unknown for stocks in 2025, they say, is President-elect Donald Trump. As we close the books on 2024 and look towards 2025, perhaps the uncertainties this time are of a magnitude beyond the norm, said Kevin Gordon and Liz Ann Sonders, investment strategists at Charles Schwab. Good news has characterized the stock market this year, partly because the economy has defied doomsayers. The economy continued to grow at a solid pace in 2024, while inflation decreased. This performance kept the U.S. on track for a robust 2.8% annualized rate over three months ending in September, the most recent period for which data is available. U.S. strength remains undiminished, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told ABC News in a statement. Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022. A months-long stretch of progress earlier this year helped nudge the Federal Reserve toward its first interest rate cuts in four years. In recent months, the Fed has cut its benchmark rate three-quarters of a percentage point, dialing back its fight against inflation and providing some relief for borrowers burdened with high costs. Over time, rate cuts ease the burden on borrowers for everything from home mortgages to credit cards to cars, making it cheaper to get a loan or refinance one

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