“Market participants appear to fret less about supply disruptions in the Middle East, or at least the risk of disruptions, thanks to the impressive growth we have seen in U.S. output over recent years,” Bank ING said.Almost all of Libya’s crude export capacity is now under force majeure – a waiver on contractual obligations – after pipeline blockades in the east and west of the country hindered oil production.
Anti-government unrest in Iraq, another major oil producer, also supported oil prices initially, but officials later said output from southern oil fields has been unaffected by the unrest. ING said that spare OPEC capacity, which stands in excess of 3 million bpd, was reassuring the market. The International Monetary Fund on Monday trimmed back its 2020 global economic growth forecasts by a tenth of a percentage point to 3.3% because of sharper than expected slowdowns in India and other emerging markets. But the IMF said that a U.S.-China trade deal was another sign that trade and manufacturing activity could soon bottom out.
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