Fears of pandemic send stocks lower, safe havens in demand

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Virus fears push Asian stocks to seven-week low, boost safe-haven assets

Oil prices, a barometer of the expected impact of the virus on the world’s economy, resumed their slide. Brent crude LCOc1 shed a percentage point and has dropped 10% since Jan 20.

“China is the kingpin of the global commodities market,” ING economists said in a note. “The longer factories remain closed, travel restricted and construction stalled, the larger the ramifications.”Most analysts have looked to the impact from the 2002-2003 spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome , which killed 800 people and pounded tourism and confidence, albeit briefly.

Citi expects China’s 2020 growth to slow to 5.5% because of the virus, after previously predicting it to be 5.8%, with the sharpest slowdown this quarter. That is even more bearish than J.P. Morgan and ING economists, who foresee a slowdown to 5.6.

 

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